In September 2026, China’s cement output fell 5.3% year-on-year for the month and 8.6% cumulatively, while rebar production dropped 12.6% from a year earlier and 12.0% year-to-date. Because cement cannot be stockpiled, its decline strictly equals a drop in construction activity, indicating that new starts remain in deep contraction. Rebar’s monthly decline narrowed from the prior period but stayed in double-digit territory, while the cumulative reading deteriorated only marginally, signaling no meaningful recovery in front-end construction intensity. The exact reason for the narrower monthly cement decline cannot be confirmed based on current data alone, but the cumulative trend points to continued deterioration in combined property and infrastructure physical activity.
Flat glass output plunged 14.0% year-on-year in September, marking a fresh low for the recent 20-month period, with the cumulative decline widening to 7.0%. This collapse in the completion-cycle indicator directly challenges the effectiveness of the “Guaranteed Delivery of Homes” policy. Glass demand tracks housing completions, and the record monthly drop suggests physical work at the delivery stage is now contracting sharply rather than stabilizing. Earlier policy support had kept completions relatively resilient, but current data implies that backstop is fading, potentially due to renewed developer funding stress or slower project resumption, though the precise driver cannot be confirmed from available figures.
Taken together, the physical temperature of China’s old economy remains frozen. Front-end cement and rebar point to sustained deep contraction in new starts and construction intensity, while back-end flat glass signals that completion momentum is now failing. With physical output shrinking across the entire property chain and key indicators hitting multi-year lows, the data show no cyclical bottoming signal despite policy support, underscoring a prolonged housing slump.