In September 2026, cumulative floor space sold of commercial buildings fell 13.2% year on year, while cumulative sales value dropped 13.9%, pointing to continued weakness in China’s property market. Over the past six months, the cumulative decline in floor space sold widened steadily from -10.2% to -13.2%, suggesting that the downturn is not a one-month disturbance but a persistent trend. On a monthly signal basis, floor space sales weakened by 0.011 percentage point from the prior reading, with a z-score of -1.1 (n=21), indicating a statistically notable deterioration in sales momentum.
In terms of the price-volume relationship, floor space sales at -13.2% were slightly stronger than sales value at -13.9%, implying that transaction value is falling faster than volume. That pattern suggests limited support from prices or mix, and that sales remain volume-driven with potentially greater price pressure. The residential segment showed a similar picture: cumulative residential floor space sold fell 13.8%, while residential sales value declined 13.7%, indicating broad-based pressure across both volume and value without a clear recovery signal.
Among the key attention points, the cumulative decline in commercial floor space sales widened from -12.1% to -13.2%, a deterioration of 1.1 percentage points, and the z-score of -1.1 shows that the pace of decline is relatively fast within the sample. Residential floor space sales also weakened, from -13.0% to -13.8%, a change of -0.008%, with a z-score of -0.9, indicating a softer but still meaningful decline. Based only on the current data, the exact cause cannot be confirmed; possible explanations include weak demand expectations, continued buyer caution, project launch timing, or price discounts, but further data are needed for confirmation.
On delivery expectations, both existing-home and presale floor space cumulative year-on-year figures are NULL in the current dataset, so no conclusion can be drawn about changes in risk appetite or delivery confidence. Overall, September’s property sales data point to a combination of widening declines, weakness in both volume and value, and slightly greater pressure on value than on area. The near-term foundation for a sales recovery remains fragile, and the key variables to watch are whether the decline in floor space sold continues to deepen and whether the gap between value and volume growth starts to narrow.