In August 2026, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.2%, further dropping 0.5 percentage points from the previous -6.7%. Looking at the trajectory over the past six months, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates were 1.7%, -1.6%, -4.1%, -5.7%, -6.7%, and -7.2%, showing a continuous and accelerating downward trend, indicating that current macroeconomic investment demand is still bottoming out. Notably, private investment cumulative year-on-year fell sharply by -10.1%, significantly underperforming the overall investment growth. This massive growth gap between private and overall investment strongly suggests that corporate expectations remain weak or firms are facing financing constraints. Against the backdrop of unclear profit expectations and no substantial improvement in external financing conditions, enterprises lack the willingness to actively expand capacity, leading to a continuous attenuation of endogenous investment momentum. If this divergent pattern persists, it will constrain the sustainability of future economic recovery.
From an industrial structure perspective, the cumulative year-on-year growth for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries stood at -2.4%, -2.9%, and -9.9%, respectively. The sharp dive in tertiary industry investment growth is the core factor dragging down overall investment, which is closely related to the deep adjustment of asset-heavy industries such as real estate within the tertiary sector. Data shows that the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in the real estate industry was -0.215 (i.e., a decline of 21.5%), deteriorating further from the previous -0.204 and hitting a new low in the past 22 periods. The continued sluggishness of real estate investment not only directly dragged down the investment growth of the tertiary industry but also transmitted through the industrial chain to affect the demand of related manufacturing and construction sectors. In contrast, although the primary and secondary industries are also in negative territory, their declines are relatively moderate, reflecting that policy support in stabilizing infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades has partially offset the downward pressure, though it is not yet sufficient to reverse the overall trend.
The anomalies in funding sources and sub-industries further reveal the deep-rooted causes of investment weakness. First, the cumulative year-on-year growth of self-raised funds for fixed asset investment was -0.094 (i.e., a decline of 9.4%), deteriorating from the previous -0.077 and also hitting a new low in the past 22 periods. The continuous negative growth and expanding decline of self-raised funds indicate that the internal cash flow generation capacity of enterprises has weakened. Coupled with obstructed external financing channels, this directly limits the investment capacity of enterprises. Second, the cumulative year-on-year growth of private fixed asset investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal services was -0.113 (i.e., a decline of 11.3%), dropping significantly from the previous -0.092 and hitting a new low in the past 22 periods. The sharp decline in private investment in this traditionally considered relatively stable infrastructure-related sector further confirms that private capital is exhibiting a clear risk-averse sentiment when facing uncertainty and financing constraints, even for industries with public attributes.
Furthermore, the cumulative year-on-year growth of private fixed asset investment in the primary industry was -0.119 (i.e., a decline of 11.9%), deteriorating from the previous -0.105 and touching a new low in the past 22 periods, indicating that private investment in the agricultural sector is also facing contractionary pressure. Meanwhile, the cumulative growth of fixed asset investment in non-ferrous metal mining and dressing was 0.038, slowing significantly from 0.084 in the previous period and hitting a new low in the past 22 periods, which may be related to global commodity price fluctuations and weakening domestic demand expectations. The cumulative growth of other expenses for fixed asset investment was -0.12, further declining from the previous -0.109 and reaching a new low in the past 22 periods, reflecting the continuous shrinkage in expenditures such as land acquisitions. Overall, fixed asset investment is currently facing an all-encompassing weakening of momentum, urgently requiring more forceful policy coordination to improve corporate expectations and broaden financing channels, so as to curb the spiral downward trend of investment growth.