In September 2026, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.2%, unchanged from the previous month but marking the sixth consecutive month in contractionary territory, having deteriorated steadily from -1.6% in April. More critically, private investment plummeted -10.4% YoY, significantly underperforming the headline figure by 3.2 percentage points. This pronounced divergence underscores weak corporate expectations or financing constraints: against a backdrop of insufficient aggregate demand and soft price signals, private enterprises—the most market-oriented segment—are curtailing capital expenditures amid uncertain profit prospects and balance sheet repair pressures, resulting in a structural pattern of "stable state-owned investment versus weak private investment."
By sector, the tertiary industry dragged overall growth with a -10.0% cumulative YoY decline, while the primary and secondary industries showed relative resilience at -3.9% and -2.7% respectively. This "weak services, stable manufacturing" configuration reflects the lagged recovery in services, real estate, and infrastructure, while suggesting policy resources may be tilting toward manufacturing upgrading and food security. The sharp contraction in tertiary industry likely relates to previous high bases, slower consumption scenario recovery, and overcapacity in certain service sectors, whereas the secondary industry, supported by equipment renewal and technological transformation policies, has managed to contain its decline, indicating a passive structural adjustment under policy guidance.
At the industry level, fixed asset investment growth in non-ferrous metal mining and processing turned negative at -0.003, down sharply from 0.038 in the prior period—a 0.041 percentage point drop with a z-score of -2.8, marking a 22-period low. This abrupt shift may reflect upstream raw material sectors facing price corrections and inventory cycle transitions after previous expansion, prompting corporate caution in capital spending. Simultaneously, private fixed asset investment in the primary industry fell to -0.144, down 0.025 from the previous month with a z-score of -2.6, also hitting a 22-period low, highlighting significantly cooled investment willingness among agricultural private capital squeezed by rising costs and unstable return expectations; based solely on current data, the specific policy or market shock causing this cannot be confirmed.
Additionally, fixed asset investment in culture and arts recorded -0.117, deteriorating by 0.042 with a z-score of -2.6, while private investment in road transportation and public facility management contracted deeply to -0.144 and -0.214 respectively, both hitting stage lows. These signals collectively indicate that whether in consumption-related cultural sectors or traditional infrastructure such as road transport and public facilities, private capital is withdrawing at an accelerating pace. Overall, fixed asset investment is currently in a complex phase of "aggregate bottoming, structural divergence, and private sector contraction," requiring close attention to whether growth-stabilization policies can restore private investment confidence and whether price cycles can stabilize to improve corporate profit expectations.